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According to new population projections released by Statistics Canada, even the most optimistic Trudeau government homebuilding targets risk being swamped by newcomers before they have a chance to restore affordability.


On Monday, the statistics agency projected that Canada was on course to have 63 million people by 2072 — almost all of it due to immigration. Given that the Canadian population just passed the 41 million mark, this represents a yearly gain of 440,000 newcomers — or, 1,200 new Canadians per day for the next 50 years.

As per the 2021 census, the average Canadian household comprises 2.4 people. At that rate, it would take an estimated 183,000 new homes per year just to handle the influx.

Canada's current rate of homebuilding was last pegged by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation at 247,830 housing starts per year.

With 183,000 needed each year just to break even, this leaves only 63,000 homes per year (about 27 per cent of the total) to build down the country's existing housing shortage.

The Canadian housing shortage has been estimated as high as 3.5 million units. In a 2023 report, the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation pegged 3.5 million as the number of additional housing units that would need to be built in order to restore Canada to a level of affordability last seen in 2004.
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