The tariffs imposed by former U.S.

The tariffs imposed by former U.S.


President Donald Trump are sending shockwaves across the globe, much like a boulder plummeting into a pond. On Wednesday, he revealed sweeping tariffs of at least 10% on all countries, with numerous nations facing significantly higher rates. Determining the specific effects on the energy transition will take time, potentially days or weeks. However, early insights suggest important implications for both the U.S. and the international community. To better understand these developments, I consulted Antoine Vagneur-Jones, head of supply chains and trade .

Here are some key points. China is likely to increase exports of clean technology to low- and middle-income countries. The new tariffs will impose a hefty 34% penalty on China, in addition to a 20% increase implemented earlier this year. This follows previous tariffs imposed by former President Joe Biden on Chinese solar panels and includes surcharges on other green technologies like electric vehicles and batteries. Shortly after Trump's announcement in the White House Rose Garden, Vagneur-Jones stated via WhatsApp that the tariffs "will accelerate a trend of China exporting more to middle and low-income countries." Between 2022 and 2024, the proportion of Chinese exports featuring electric vehicles, wind turbines, solar panels, and lithium-ion batteries to these regions has seen significant growth, according .
Solar panels are ensnared in this trade conflict. The tariff rates for "several Southeast Asian countries" are significantly damaging, according to Vagneur-Jones. This region supplies the majority of U.S. solar imports. Vietnam, a key supplier, now faces a 46% tariff, while Cambodia and Thailand, also major exporters, are subject to surcharges of 49% and 36%, respectively.

The United States imports far more solar panels than it produces. India is poised to gain from this situation. Compared to China and Southeast Asia, India faces a relatively moderate tariff rate of 26% as it works to enhance its clean tech manufacturing capacity. The country is also finalizing a $1 billion subsidy to expand its solar sector. In the past two years, India has significantly increased its solar exports to the U.S., sending 9.4 gigawatts of cells and modules—valued at $3.4 billion—between 2023 and 2024, according to customs data. This is a notable increase compared to previous years. With heightened tariffs on imports from Vietnam and other countries, India may seize this opportunity.

"The lower duties could potentially enhance future exports," Vagneur-Jones observed. However, in the end, all parties may end up losing. The global community urgently needs to fast-track the energy transition to mitigate the severe effects of climate change, rather than erecting barriers. Unfortunately, these tariffs effectively create significant obstacles that will affect all sectors, especially those dependent on supply chains linked to China and other nations—essentially, nearly every industry. While the tariffs are ostensibly aimed at strengthening U.S. manufacturing, "extreme volatility deters companies from investing in assets with a 20-year depreciation cycle, and increasing input costs complicate the scaling of manufacturing," Vagneur-Jones explained.
Bloomberg