Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's future looks uncertain after the abrupt resignation of his top cabinet official, a former close ally.
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Chrystia Freeland, a former deputy prime minister and finance minister, resigned Monday, writing an open letter to Trudeau, outlining her disagreements with him on spending and "the best path for Canada."
Those disputes, she said, have been exacerbated by new U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of tariffs on Canadian goods — tariffs that economists say could deal a devastating blow to the Canadian economy.
There are now questions in Parliament, including from some members of his own Liberal Party, about whether he is fit to lead at this critical time.
He has several options on how to move forward. Heed calls for his resignation
Trudeau has been leader of the Liberal Party of Canada since 2013 and Prime Minister of Canada for just over nine years, since 2015.
According to the party's constitution, the leader can resign at any time. If effective immediately, an interim leader is appointed until party members can meet and vote on a new permanent leader.
Trudeau can also choose to remain in office until that new leader is elected.
Once a new leader is appointed, Trudeau will have to relinquish his powers as Prime Minister and hand them over to his successor. Stay strong and weather the storm.
Trudeau is not suggesting he will resign voluntarily anytime soon.
In an emergency meeting with his caucus after Freeland's departure, Trudeau told his fellow Liberal MPs — including some who had directly called for his resignation — that he would take time to think, according to multiple reports.
And in a holiday speech to the Liberal Party faithful on Tuesday, he acknowledged that politics faced "enormous challenges" but said: "In difficult times, this is not the time to give up." This is the time to be ambitious, to be bold."
Trudeau has been under pressure since the summer, driven by his declining popularity and a series of special election losses in once-safe Liberal seats that pose serious problems for his party.
In October, he faced a revolt from a small parliamentary group, with 24 lawmakers signing a letter calling for his removal. Despite these difficulties, Trudeau has stood firm and has repeatedly promised to run again as Liberal Party leader in the next election.
Only 13 of the 153 Liberal MPs have so far openly called for his removal — nearly half of whom are not seeking re-election, according to a CBC News tally.
However, according to the party's constitution, the leadership position can be formally put to a vote by members after an electoral defeat.
A vote of no confidence triggers an election.
Outnumbered in opinion polls, the Conservatives have been trying for months to trigger an election by filing a series of no-confidence motions in the House of Commons.
If a government loses a motion or a vote of confidence in the House of Representatives, it is likely to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament, thus triggering a federal election. The government needs the support of a majority of 338 MPs for a vote of no confidence. The Liberals are 17 seats away from that result.
The Conservatives' efforts failed because the NDP or the Bloc Québécois supported the Liberals in exchange for support for advancing their respective political priorities.
With Parliament recessed on Tuesday, Trudeau will not face the threat of another confidence vote until at least the end of January.
On Monday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh called for Trudeau to resign for the first time, making the Liberals' grip on power increasingly fragile. The Democratic Party leader told CBC television that his members would vote in favor of a no-confidence motion if the prime minister was still leader in the new year.
Proroguing Parliament to avoid a no-confidence vote
Trudeau can avoid the vote by proroguing Parliament — essentially a suspension that stops all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving Parliament.
While this is an integral part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during a political crisis.
Parliament was most recently suspended by Trudeau in August 2020, when his government was facing an ethics scandal over its handling of a contract with a charity.
It was also used to avoid a vote of no confidence by Trudeau's predecessor, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who suspended Parliament in December 2008 when federal opposition parties sought to form a coalition government. Parliament resumed in January 2009. By then, the coalition had collapsed, allowing Harper to remain in power.
Whatever Trudeau decides, an election in the coming months is inevitable.
Canada is due to hold its next election later in October, and ultimately, voters can decide its future.
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